TORONTO, October 21, 2000 -- Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chretien is poised to call an election tomorrow for Nov. 27, ending weeks of speculation by political pundits. The election call will follow a flurry of pre-election activity this week by the Chretien Liberals including: a cabinet shuffle which brought Newfoundland Premier Brain Tobin back into Cabinet; a mini-budget by Finance Minister Paul Martin which featured a 21 per cent cut in personal income taxes (over five years), $10 billion in debt reduction, and a smattering of new spending; and a $500 million investment toward Toronto's waterfront revitalization plan.
In the run-up to tomorrow's campaign start, the Liberals have also been accused of stonewalling by the Information Commissioner and confronted by claims of mismanagement in the Auditor-General's report.
To discuss these issues and more, York University offers up the following faculty members who can provide informed and timely analysis to such questions as:
Is a two-party system in Canada inevitable? What effect will the recent Auditor General's report have on the Liberal's election campaign? Have the Liberals abandoned the political centre to compete with the Canadian Alliance, and if so, does this open the door for NDP electoral gains? What will strategic voting in Atlantic Canada mean for the NDP and Progressive Conservative Party? Can the Canadian Alliance win any seats in Ontario? PARTY ELECTION STRATEGY, ADVERTISING, SPENDING, POLLS, STRATEGIC VOTING
Reg Whitaker, one of York's top experts on Canadian and provincial politics, says the Liberals will get re-elected with a majority government unless there is a major shift of opinion during the election campaign. "Canadians are likely to reflect on the fact that times are great, the economy is booming, and the financial books are in better shape than they have ever been, so why rock the boat?" Whitaker says that Atlantic Canada will be the battleground to watch on election night to see whether the NDP and Tories can hold on to their seats in what is expected to be a tough fight against the Liberals. He adds that the Canadian Alliance might pick up five or six seats in Ontario's 905/705 regions but contends that the United Alternative will never achieve national status because it will never get support in Quebec, and will likely find resistance to its policies in Atlantic Canada. Whitaker can be reached at (416) 736-2100, ext. 88833, at home: (416) 484-7366, or by e-mail: regwhit@yorku.ca.
Fred Fletcher, director of York's joint graduate program in Communication and Culture and a professor of political science, is paying close attention to the advertising campaigns of each of the parties. He says that the Canadian Alliance's pre-election ads have been primarily focussed on promoting Stockwell Day rather than knocking down Jean Chretien. Fletcher says this approach is far less adversarial than other ad campaigns, sighting the Mike Harris Ontario Conservative personal attack ads employed against Ontario Liberal Leader Dalton McGuinty during the 1999 Ontario provincial election. Fletcher, who can also discuss election media coverage, third party advertising, and polling, can be reached at (416) 736-2100, ext. 88819, at home: (416) 932-8453, or by e-mail: ffletch@yorku.ca.
Robert MacDermid, a professor of political science and a leading expert on election and party financing, says that the Canadian Alliance's election finances are almost neck and neck with the Liberals compared to the 1997 federal election where the Reform Party lagged several million dollars behind. He attributes this to increased Bay Street political donations into the Alliance's financial coffers, but says this has likely been at the financial expense of the federal Conservatives. MacDermid says he is surprised that the Liberals did not have any pre-election advertising, especially when there are no limits governing pre-election spending. He also says he expects to see less third-party advertising during this campaign, but is interested to see if there will be any limits imposed by the courts. MacDermid, who can discuss voting behaviour, polling, and campaign strategies, can be reached at (416) 736-2100, ext. 77298, at home: (705) 357-2459, or by e-mail: rmacd@yorku.ca.
Patrick Monahan, a professor of law at York University's Osgoode Hall Law School, is predicting a Liberal minority government and says the televised leaders' debates will serve as the turning point. He notes that the opposition parties' campaigns so far are focusing on painting Chretien as arrogant and opportunistic in calling an early election, rather than addressing substantive policy issues. Monahan, a leading expert on constitutional law, national unity, federalism, inter-governmental relations, and Quebec, can be reached at his law office: (416) 367-6976.
Robert Drummond is a political science professor with extensive knowledge of Ontario politics and provincial public policy. He says that while many Canadians may like the Alliance party's brand of economic conservatism, he is skeptical whether Canadians would also subscribe to the Alliance's social conservative views, especially on same-sex benefits, and gender issues. He asks whether Stockwell Day can be trusted to keep his religious views separate from his views on public policy. Drummond can be reached at (416) 736-2100, ext. 88843 or at home: (416) 494-3460.
THE NDP, LABOUR
James Laxer, a political science professor at York University's Atkinson Faculty of Liberal and Professional Studies who has written extensively about the political left in Canada, says the NDP risks being caught in the squeeze play between the Liberals and the Alliance. "If the Alliance starts to come up in the polls during the campaign, a reasonable assumption, the Liberals can be expected to appeal to NDP and PC voters to come on board to stop Stockwell Day. And because the NDP has failed to imprint any alternative vision of the future on the minds of Canadians, this Liberal strategy could be highly effective. The NDP needs to stake out its own clear ground and move away from the fuzzy centre. Along with its traditional defense of social programs, the NDP needs to take up the critique of the new movement among the young, offering its opposition to the "corporate agenda" and defending the right of Canadians and other peoples to resist the homogenizing ways of the globalizers." Laxer, whose recently published book is Stalking the Elephant: My Discovery of America (Viking, 2000), can be reached at (416) 736-2100, ext. 66462, or at home: (416) 544-9941.
Carla Lipsig-MummÈ is the director of York University's Centre for Research on Work and Society. An expert on trade unions and the labour movement in Canada, she can discuss the role and views of labour in the election. Lipsig-MummÈ can be reached at (416) 736-5612.
Greg Albo, a professor of political science, can offer analysis on employment, labour relations, public policy and the Canadian economy under the Chretien government, the role of the Left in Canadian politics, and the NDP's election campaign. He says the NDP will keep its seats in Western Canada and adds that the NDP's support in the polls is too low for strategic voting to be an issue. Albo can be reached at (416) 736-5265 ext. 22552 or at home: (416) 516-4875.
QUEBEC, THE BLOC
Ken McRoberts, professor of political science and principal of York's Glendon College, is one of Canada's top experts on Quebec politics and the relationship between Quebec and the rest of Canada. He says Jean Chretien's popularity outside of Quebec is a liability for the Liberals in that province but says it is unlikely that too many seats will change hands between the Liberals and the Bloc QuÈbÈcois under Gilles Duceppe. He adds that there is no clear justification for the Liberals to call a fall election, and this may anger many voters. McRoberts can do interviews in French. He can be reached at (416) 487-6727 or at home at (416) 483-0842.
ETHICS IN CANADIAN POLITICS
David Shugarman, a political science professor and director of York University's Centre for Practical Ethics, can discuss a wide variety of election issues including the Liberal's response to the Auditor General's Report (or lack of) and how the report is likely to become a thorny election issue. He has researched and written about protest parties, movements and Western alienation. As a university student at the University of Alberta in the ë60s, Shugarman had the unique experience of debating Reform/Alliance Party founder Preston Manning during a mock-parliament. Shugarman, who recently co-authored, with York Prof. Ian Greene, Honest Politics: Seeking Integrity in Canadian Public Life (James Lorimer, 1997), and co-edited Cruelty and Deception: The Controversy Over Dirty Hands In Politics (Broadview Press, 1999) can be reached at (416) 736-2100, ext. 77083, (416) 736-5128, or at home: (416) 229-0595.
Ian Greene, a political science professor who has done in-depth research on Canadian attitudes toward ethical issues in politics, says despite the Liberal's convincing lead in the polls, the election is still too early to call because the Liberals have generated a lot of resentment by calling the election only three years into its term. He says the Liberals want an election now because the other parties are unprepared for an election, noting that the Alliance still doesn't have a full slate of candidates. He says this resentment may help the NDP and Conservatives. Greene, who has written and co-authored numerous books including A Question of Ethics (1998) and, with York Prof. David Shugarman, Honest Politics: Seeking Integrity in Canadian Public Life (James Lorimer, 1997), can be reached at (416) 736-2100, ext. 77055 or at home: (416) 763-0766.
HEALTHCARE, WOMEN'S HEALTH, CHILDCARE
Georgina Feldberg, director of York University's Centre for Health Studies, says the Liberals have a mixed track record when it comes to Canadian healthcare and women's health. She points to the showdown between Ottawa and the Alberta government over private healthcare and how the Liberals backed down despite much posturing. "Private healthcare impedes access for the poor. And most people who live near the poverty line are women and children." Feldberg can also discuss universal childcare, and the Liberal's promise of extending maternity leave to one year from six months. She can be reached at (416) 736-5941.
DEFENCE
Martin Shadwick, a defence analyst with York University's Centre for International and Security Studies, can discuss a variety of issues in Canada's military which may surface in the election including: controversy over the government's handling of Canada's aging fleet of Sea King helicopters; low morale among many of Canada's military personnel due to deteriorating living conditions, and low pay; Canada's future role in peacekeeping missions, Canada's role in the North American Aerospace Defence Command (Norad); and pending cutbacks to military bases and expenditure. Shadwick can be reached at (416) 494-5950.
AFFORDABLE HOUSING, ABORIGINAL TREATIES, THE ENVIRONMENT
Peter Homenuck, a professor at York University's Faculty of Environmental Studies and a former co-ordinator of York's urban studies program, says the Liberals announcement of $500 million towards a $1.5 billion plan to revitalize Toronto's waterfront will probably do little to create affordable housing. He also says there is a big gap between the government's rhetoric and actual policy implementation on air, water and resource management. Homenuck can also discuss Aboriginal Peoples' issues as they relate to the election, including the tensions between Aboriginals and The Canadian Alliance, treaties and fishing rights, including the East Coast fishery dispute with the government. Homenuck can be reached at: (905) 660-1060, ext. 223, (416) 736-5252, ext. 33033, or at home: (905) 939-8846.
David Bell, political science professor and director of York University's Centre for Applied Sustainability, is an expert on political linguistics, political culture and environmental politics. He says the federal government is trailing behind business in implementing sustainable development practices, but admits the government's lack of leadership on the environment is unlikely to become a key election issue. Bell can be reached at: (416) 736-2100, ext. 77095 or at home: (905) 889-2873.
CULTURAL POLICY, CBC
Seth Feldman, Robarts Chair in Canadian Studies, former dean of the York University's Faculty of Fine Arts, film historian, media critic and broadcaster, can comment on Canadian arts and cultural as it relates to the election. He is particularly cynical when it comes to the individual parties' stances on the CBC. "The Liberals promised to stabilize CBC funding and, quite obviously broke that promise. The Alliance promises to cut CBC TV and will likely keep that promise. The Tories began the cuts in the first place. And the Bloc wants no part of an organization that sees national unity as part of its mandate. In fact, the only party that has been at all supportive of the CBC has been the NDP - and, of course, they have been supportive in theory only." Feldman can be reached at (416) 736-2100, ext. 77553, or by e-mail: sfeldman@yorku.ca.
Joanne Harris Burgess, a cultural policy analyst specializing in contemporary Canadian issues and a professor of Canadian Studies at York's Glendon College, says the advent of the Canadian Alliance Party shows that there as been a dramatic ideological shift in Canada's political right. "To the extent that the Progressive Conservative Party was founded in the historic tradition of a national vision of a Canada economically viable in all regions, the question raised by the Canadian Alliance platform is how does it respond to the geographic and demographic realities of Canada? It does so by challenging regional equalization payments, seasonal and resource specific support packages, and by weakening the Ottawa's ability to move in these sectors. This is the new right wing in Canada ó a wholesale adoption of a US political agenda that is ignorant of, and untailored for the Canadian reality. Stockwell Day's party is the US Republican Party in Canada." Burgess can be reached at home: (416) 445-4400, or by e-mail: joanneharrisburgess@home.com.
TAXES, THE DEBT, ECONOMIC POLICY
Daniel Drache is a political scientist and the director of York University's Robarts Centre for Canadian Studies. Drache says deep tax relief as seen in the mini-budget will not necessarily make Canada more globally competitive. Foreign ownership of Canadian firms, labour market re-organization, and the continuing heath reform crisis also need to be addressed as part of Canada's economic well-being. Drache, co-editor of Health Reform: Public Success, Private Failure (Routledge, 1999), can be reached at: (416) 736-5415, or at home: (416) 921-3332.
Bernie Wolf, an economics professor at York's Schulich School of Business, can speak about economic issues during the campaign, including unemployment, Canada's employment potential, interest rates, debt, taxes, trade and NAFTA, and other issues related to monetary or trade policy. He says the Liberal's recent pre-election mini-budget struck a sensible balance between tax cuts, spending and debt reduction. He says the liberals should avoid promising to cut gasoline taxes during the election, despite independent truckers' demands. Wolf can be reached at (416) 736-2100, ext. 77933 or at home: (416) 223-2794.
Neil Brooks, a professor of law at York University's Osgoode Hall Law School, specializes in taxation and fiscal policy. Brooks was the co-chair of the Ontario Fair Tax Commission established by the Ontario NDP government in 1991. Brooks argues that Martin should have restored social spending and transfer payments to the provinces rather than cut personal income taxes in the mini-budget. He can be reached at: (416) 736-5047 or at home: (905) 880-4735.
Jim Gillies, who served as a Conservative MP and finance critic under former Progressive Conservative Leader Robert Stanfield and Joe Clark, is a public policy professor specializing in business and government relations at York University's Schulich School of Business. He says that Martin needs to cut taxes more deeply and more quickly, rather than phasing them in gradually. Gillies can be reached at: (416) 736-2100, ext. 77901, or at home: (905) 881-5594.
James Savary, Chair of Economics at York's Glendon College says the Liberals should reduce the GST because it would benefit consumers, especially lower and middle-income earners who do not qualify for the GST rebate, but admits this is unlikely to happen. He adds that Martin must examine whether tax cuts will lead to higher inflation, and in turn to higher interest rates. Savary can be reached at: (416) 736-2100, ext. 88150, or at home: (416) 480-0601.
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For more information or additional experts, please contact:
Ken Turriff
Media Relations Officer
York University
(416) 736-2100, ext. 22086
kturriff@yorku.ca
YU/108/00
